Coherent Forecasting in Binomial AR(p) Model

mortality forecasting based on lee-carter model

over the past decades a number of approaches have been applied for forecasting mortality. in 1992, a new method for long-run forecast of the level and age pattern of mortality was published by lee and carter. this method was welcomed by many authors so it was extended through a wider class of generalized, parametric and nonlinear model. this model represents one of the most influential recent d...

Beta-Binomial Model and Its Generalizations in the Demand Forecasting for Multiple Slow-Moving

Time series forecasting using a hybrid RBF neural network and AR model based on binomial smoothing

ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression...

Negative Binomial and Multinomial States: probability distributions and coherent states

Following the relationship between probability distribution and coherent states, for example the well known Poisson distribution and the ordinary coherent states and relatively less known one of the binomial distribution and the su(2) coherent states, we propose interpretation of su(1, 1) and su(r, 1) coherent states in terms of probability theory. They will be called the negative binomial (mul...

Modeling the Number of Attacks in Multiple Sclerosis Patients Using Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model

Background and aims: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory disease of the central nervous system.The impact of the number of attacks on the disease is undeniable. The aim of this study was to analyze thenumber of attacks in these patients.Methods: In this descriptive-analytical study, the registered data of 1840 MS patients referred to the MS clinicof Ayatollah Kash...